// February 23rd, 2011 // No Comments » // movie talk
Photo by The Weinstein Company
Every year I make my own prediction on who are going to win the Oscar. Unfortunately, I couldn’t afford to watch every movies, so my prediction mostly just based on what I read or hear from media, blogs, movie reviews and then I tried to create my own conclusion. So here goes:
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
The Oscar goes to: Colin Firth (he already wins Golden Globe and Critics Choice award).
Jesse Eisenberg is pretty strong contender. If Colin didn’t win, then he will. Bridges wouldn’t win because he just won last year, and it’s so unlikely for academy to have the same winner for two years in the row.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
The Oscar goes to: Christian Bale (He wins the Golden Globe and I don’t hear enough buzz from the other actors)
Even though they have much slimmer chance, but Oscar might choose Ruffalo and Rush as well.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
The oscar goes to: Annette Bening (She has been nominated several times and always lost, so perhaps her time has arrived? Though, I wouldn’t be surprise if they choose Natalie Portman instead).
I decided to against all odds by choosing Benning. Most of prediction saying that Portman is going to win. However, from what I heard, Michelle Williams actually the one that gives the BEST performance ever, but not enough buzz for her. It’s good to see Kidman back on the race, but I don’t think she will win. My own preference is actually Julianne Moore. I only saw the performances by Benning, Portman and Moore, as much as I love the other two, but I like Moore even more and shocked that she wasn’t even nominated.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
The Oscar goes to: Melissa Leo (her recent winning at the Golden Globe winning might has influence my prediction)
Based on many reviews by critics and regular viewers, Steinfeild actually gave the amazing performance and many think that she should be nominated for leading role instead of supporting. However, she still pretty new in the race and I suspect the Oscar would rather award the more experienced actress. Though, I just read that recent Leo campaign could hurt her chance to win. If so, then Steinfeild might get it.
Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
“The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
“Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
The Oscar goes to: Toy Story 3 (One of the best movie of the year. It will definitely win because it’s also got nominated in Best Picture category, so it would be too strange if they actually lost)
If Toy Story didn’t get nominated for the Best Picture, then How To Train Your Dragon had almost the same chance to win, who is surprisingly (according to people who have watched it) try to follow the Pixar footsteps by focusing in great storytelling.
Art Direction
“Alice in Wonderland”
Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
“Inception”
Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
“The King’s Speech”
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
“True Grit”
Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
The Oscar goes to: Inception (Why? Simply because Inception is this year’s Avatar).
I think Deathly Hallows has amazing art direction as well, but Inception offering something new that we’ve never seen before, so it deserves to win.
Cinematography
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King’s Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins
The Oscar goes to: Inception (they deserve it, in fact they SHOULD win all the technical categories).
However, The Black Swan might “steal” the Oscar. Many people think this movie was great in technical aspects too. I have to disagree, though. It was brilliant movie and I enjoy it a lot, but I don’t think it should win this category.
Costume Design
“Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
“I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
“The King’s Speech” Jenny Beavan
“The Tempest” Sandy Powell
“True Grit” Mary Zophres
The Oscar goes to: The King’s Speech (As one of the best pictures nominees, I think they might win other categories as well).
This time I am surprised that The Black Swan wasn’t nominated. I think Natalie Portman’s costume as the evil Black Swan was beyond beautiful. Weeks ago, I actually predict Alice In Wonderland that most likely to win in this category, but I’ve slowly begun change my mind after reading more news and reviews about The King’s Speech.
Directing
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King’s Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
The Oscar goes to: David Fincher (another category that I am almost 100% sure)
What a surprise that Christopher Nolan wasn’t even nominated. Talking about biggest Oscar snub this year.
Documentary (Feature)
“Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz
“Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
“Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
“Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
“Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
The Oscar goes to: I don’t know and hard to guess at all.
Documentary (Short Subject)
“Killing in the Name” Nominees to be determined
“Poster Girl” Nominees to be determined
“Strangers No More” Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon
“Sun Come Up” Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger
“The Warriors of Qiugang” Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon
The Oscar goes too: No clue at all.
Film Editing
“Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
“The Fighter” Pamela Martin
“The King’s Speech” Tariq Anwar
“127 Hours” Jon Harris
“The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
The Oscar goes to: The Black Swan (I can’t say that I agree if they really win, I think Inception should win, but it doesn’t even get nominated)
The Fighter has a good chance too (I assumed it must be quite hard to edit fighting scene).
Foreign Language Film
“Biutiful” Mexico
“Dogtooth” Greece
“In a Better World” Denmark
“Incendies” Canada
“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria
The Oscar goes to: In a Better World (It’s already won the Globe, that’s why)
Makeup
“Barney’s Version” Adrien Morot
“The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
“The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
The Oscar goes to: The Wolfman (the only movie that I am familiar with)
No Alice In Wonderland? No Deathly Hallows? Not even The Black Swan?
Music (Original Score)
“How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
“Inception” Hans Zimmer
“The King’s Speech” Alexandre Desplat
“127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
“The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
The Oscar goes to: The Social Network
My personal preference will be Desplat score for Deathly Hallows. That was just amazing and I am really root for him. Oh, well. I am glad he got nominated for The King’s Speech.
Music (Original Song)
“Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
“I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
“If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
“We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3″ Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
The Oscar goes to: Coming Home from Country Strong.
Best Picture
“Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
“The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
“Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
“The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
“The King’s Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
“127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
“The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
“Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
“True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
“Winter’s Bone” Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
The Oscar goes to: The King’s Speech
Only recently that I start to have faith that the academy will choose different winner than Golden Globe. In that case, then The King’s Speech might win. Until a week ago, I actually predicted The Social Network will win hugest award, still they still have huge chance to win more than any other nominees
Short Film (Animated)
“Day & Night” Teddy Newton
“The Gruffalo” Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
“Let’s Pollute” Geefwee Boedoe
“The Lost Thing” Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)” Bastien Dubois
The Oscar goes to: Day and Night (Day and Night was the only one I’ve seen and familiar with, but I won’t be shocked if the academy will choose other instead)
Short Film (Live Action)
“The Confession” Tanel Toom
“The Crush” Michael Creagh
“God of Love” Luke Matheny
“Na Wewe” Ivan Goldschmidt
“Wish 143” Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
The Oscar goes to: No clue.
Sound Editing
“Inception” Richard King
“Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
“Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
“Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger
The oscar goes to: Toy Story 3
Not enough love from academy for Inception to win.
Sound Mixing
“Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
“The King’s Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
“Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
“The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
“True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
The oscar goes too: Inception (not really sure though)
Visual Effects
“Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
“Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
“Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
“Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
The oscar goes to: Inception
This time it got better chance than the other nominess
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter’s Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
The oscar goes to: The Social Network
It’s already won the Golden Globe for the same category.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King’s Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
The oscar goes to: The Kids Are All Right
I hope the academy will show a little love for this movie.
